April 2024 Ends on a Warmer Note

Despite the temperature swings so far during April 2024 in the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ, the month on the whole thus far has featured near normal temperatures and near normal rainfall. Below normal temperatures for the first week of the month were replaced by about 10 days of above normal temperatures (during which time Toms River hit 80 F for the first time this year, on 15th). After the passage of a cold front on the 17th, temperatures have averaged below normal. During this cool snap, we recorded our lowest temperatures of the month (35 F on both the 22nd and 23rd). Generally record low temperatures during mid to late April are in the mid 20s to lower 30s, so despite low temperatures flirting with the freezing mark, no daily record low temperatures were set during this time.

A cold front crossing the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast States will bring a few showers to the region Wednesday. In the wake of the front, high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes, continuing the cooler than normal temperatures across the Jersey Shore into the early portion of the upcoming weekend. As the high gets offshore of the New England coast, the onshore flow reinforces the cool temperatures, where ocean water temperatures remains in the mid to upper 40s. The onshore flow keeps temperatures in the 50s Saturday.

Low pressure crossing Ontario into Quebec drags a warm front across the Northeast during Sunday. This pushes the high pressure system off the coast to southward, allowing surface winds to shift to the southwest, beginning a warming process that lasts into early next week. High temperatures Sunday should be about 10 degrees warmer than Saturday, meaning that highs should reach into the 70s across most portions of NJ. The exception here could be the Jersey Shore, especially if surface winds remain more south than southwest. That small deviation in wind direction could mean that the Bellcrest section of Toms River NJ could top out just short of the 70 degree mark, despite the sunshine.

As the surface high drifts further south, it reaches a position off the NC coast, and it begins to resemble the Bermuda High that provides hotter and more humid conditions along the Jersey Shore during the summer months. This airmass is not nearly that warm, but all areas should see southwest winds, which might keep the sea breeze at bay along the Jersey Shore during Monday. High temperatures there could approach 80 degrees F, even if a sea breeze does indeed develop during the afternoon. Should the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ reach the 80 degree mark, it would fall well short of the daily record high temperature for the date, which is 89 degrees, set in 2017.

Forecast high temperatures could be trickiest for Tuesday, as the southwest winds becomes weaker, and an onshore flow could develop. If that is the case, high temperatures in the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ may have a tough time getting above the 70 degree mark, while locations just a few miles inland (generally west of the Garden State Parkway) could see temperatures soar back toward the 80 degree mark in the afternoon. Once again, daily record high temperatures are generally in the mid 80s to around 90 for the tail end of April, so despite the warmth, no records are expected in Toms River.

At this point, it appears as though April 2024 will be a bit above normal with respect to temperature, and just above normal regarding rainfall. Just one year ago, during April 2023, the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ experienced its warmest and wettest April on record. When the high temperature touched 90 degrees on April 13th, 2023, it marked the third earliest date during which the high temperature reached or exceeded that value. Normally, Toms River does not see its first 90 degree day until May 21st, or about a week before Memorial Day.