The April 2023 Heat in Toms River, NJ

Following a warm and wet March 2024, April 2024 in the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ has been much cooler than normal. In fact, the first eight days of the month averaged nearly five degrees below normal, with high temperatures reminiscent more of early March than early April. Warmer temperatures followed for April 9th, but as rain chances return for the next couple of days, April 2023 will maintain is cool character through the end of the week.

However, just one year ago, a three day April warm spell set records and helped contribute to record warmth during April 2023. Surface high pressure sitting off the NC coast (sometimes referred to as the Bermuda High) produced a southwest flow of summerlike air that was funneled into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states, starting on April 12th. Typically, when temperatures warm inland across NJ during the spring, an onshore flow develops, drawing air from the still chilly ocean across the Jersey Shore. This time, the southwest flow was strong enough to keep the sea breeze at bay, allowing temperatures along the coast to warm just as quickly as further inland.

The persistent area of high pressure maintained the offshore flow over NJ April 12-14th, 2023, setting daily record high temperatures each day. Not only were new daily record high temperatures each of these days, record high minimum temperatures were established as well. Dubbed “maxi mins” by meteorologists, record high minimum temperatures can indicate just how unusual warm temperatures are for the season. In fact, the low temperatures each of the three days indicated above were higher than the average high temperatures for mid April!

How often does the Bellcrest section of Toms River see 90-degree temperatures this early in spring? To put these temperatures into perspective, our first 90 degree high typically occurs about one week before Memorial Day (about five weeks from mid April). Normal high temperatures this time of year are generally in the lower 60s, meaning that the April 2023 heat was between 25 and 30 degrees above normal for the dates! In addition, the 90 degree high temperature on April 13th, 2023 was the third earliest 90 degree high temperature at this location.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates that temperatures should be warmer than normal through the 23rd, or about one week from the end of the month. By the end of April, high temperatures in Toms River are in the mid 60s, so perhaps there are a few 70+ degree temperatures are possible in the near future. Precipitation chances are expected to be near normal, with a chance of rain or showers every few days through April 23rd.