Reviewing March 2024 Weather in Toms River, NJ

Overview

March 2024 was remarkable for both heavy rainfall and near record warm temperatures in the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ. The month started much warmer than normal with heavy rainfall, followed by a 13 day period of no rainfall at all during mid month, followed by heavy rainfall and cooler temperatures at end the month. In total, five daily rainfall records were recorded in March 2024, as well as two daily record high temperatures (not to mention a record warm minimum temperature on the 3rd). Considering the warmth of March 2024, the fact that there was no snow observed during the month in Toms River, NJ is not surprising.

Rainfall

As has been the case in three out of the past four months, heavy rainfall has been the story in the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ. During March 2024, 9.26 inches of rainfall was recorded, establishing a new March rainfall record for this location (where rainfall records extend back to 1989). Curiously, the heavy rainfall was split into two sections, encompassing the first portion of the month, and the last 10 days of March 2024.

During the first nine days of the month, over four inches of rain was noted, and three new daily rainfall records were established. Based on the heavy rainfall, it seemed as though a new monthly rainfall record was in the offing for Toms River, NJ (which was 8.19 inches during March 2002, a record that was more than 20 years old). However, the weather pattern changed, pushing the jet stream north of the region, and the rainfall followed the jet stream. Instead of more heavy rainfall, the Jersey Shore experienced 13 consecutive rain free days, which was the third longest such period ever in March.

However, the weather pattern changed again after about the 20th, when cooler temperatures and rain returned to the Jersey Shore. Heavy rainfall during the last week or so of March 2024 resulted in two additional daily rainfall records, as well as the highest calendar day rainfall so far this year (2.50 inches on the 23rd). Rainfall on the 28th not only set a daily rainfall record, but pushed the monthly total over the previous record for March. In total, 9.26 inches of rain was observed for March 2024, almost double the normal amount for the month!

Finally, the record rainfall during March 2024 also pushed the total for the first three months of 2024 to 18.18 inches, which is the most for the first three months of any year to date. This record is even more incredible considering that February 2024 saw on 1.74 inches of rainfall, which is much lower than the normal for the month (2.82 inches). Obviously, the weather story for March 2024 in Toms River, NJ was the rainfall, which has been a continuation of the very wet conditions dating back to December 2023.

Temperatures

Though overshadowed by the heavy rainfall during March 2024, temperatures during the month were more than five degrees above normal! This departure resulted in the third warmest March on record for this location (the warmest March occurred in 2012). Like most months over the past six months, the first three weeks of March 2024 featured much above normal temperatures, with some days near 20 degrees above normal (more reminiscent of late April or early May than mid March). During this time frame, two daily record high temperatures were established (on the 3rd and the 15th), but it was the warm low temperatures than made March so mild.

During the first three weeks of March 2024, NJ (and much of the Mid Atlantic states) was in the “warm sector”, south of the frontal boundary extending from western NY state into central and southern New England. South of the front, a low southwest flow transported warmer air to the Jersey Shore, producing very warm (and occasionally record breaking) temperatures. Typically when temperatures are much above normal, rain chances diminish, as the pattern is usually drier than normal. The dry period during March 2024 aligns well with the warmer temperatures during the middle of the month.

The warmer and drier pattern ended quite abruptly around the 23rd of the month, when high pressure over northern New England pushed the front south of the Jersey shore, eventually coming to rest from central PA into the northern Mid Atlantic states. Now north of the front, storm systems could once again cross the region, bringing an end to the dry spell, and pushing temperatures back below normal for much of the remainder of March. Cooler temperatures during the the last 10 days or so of March 2024 were enough to prevent the Jersey Shore from experiencing its warmest March ever, but even with the cooler temperatures, March 2024 concluded as the third warmest March ever in this location.

Thunderstorms

Our Tempest Weather Station has an onboard lightning detector, which allows us to log lightning activity within 25 miles of the sensor. For our purposes, a thunderstorm day happens when lightning is detected within five miles of the station. Despite the warmer temperatures this March, our station did not log any thunderstorm days. In fact, our sensor has not detected a storm within five miles of the station since September 23rd, 2023.

Though not unusual for March to pass without any thunderstorms, the pattern change that allows for storms to develop and affect coastal NJ can begin as early as March. We had three days in March 2023 with thunderstorms (the 23rd, 25th and 26th), so they can occur, but we do not yet have a reliable climatology of thunderstorms along the Jersey shore that would verify whether storms in March are unusual or not. We are excited at the prospect to use the output from the lightning sensor to build our own thunderstorm climatology, but thus far the data sample has been far too small to draw any conclusions.