Revisiting the Warmest 5 Day Period during March in Toms River, NJ

March 2024 appears as though it will end on a wet note, as yet another rainstorm brings heavy rain to the Jersey Shore Wednesday into Thursday. If the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ receives more than three-quarters of an inch of rain during that time, a new monthly rainfall record for the location will be set. The rainfall forecast from the NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) would indicate that the area will receive more than an inch, easily eclipsing the previous record of 8.19 inches, established in 2002.

In stark contrast to the wet conditions and near normal temperatures for the balance of March 2024, Toms River, NJ wilted in the warmest five day period on record 26 years ago. During that time, the high temperature in the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ reached 88 degrees. This is the warmest temperature ever recorded for March at that location and set a record high for the date as well.

Typically, when temperatures soar during the early spring on the Jersey Shore, the wind shifts to the south, bringing colder air in from the ocean. Inland areas can see temperatures in the 80s in March, but along the coast, this rarely happens so early in the season. However, in this case, surface high pressure anchored off the Mid Atlantic coast (sometimes referred to as the Bermuda High) produced moderate to strong southwest flow of very warm air across the area. The southwest flow prevented colder air from coming ashore near the coast, allowing Toms River to set record high temperatures during four of the last five days of the month in 1998.

Normal high temperatures for late March in the Bellcrest section of Toms River are in the lower to mid 50s. During the five day period of March 27th through March 31st, 1998, high temperatures ranged between 25 and 30 degrees above normal! To put this in perspective, these high temperatures would be expected in the middle of July, not the end of March.

Record heat was not limited to NJ during this time period. During March 1998, I was working for the National Weather Service in Gray ME (about 10 miles north of Portland). At the time, I did not have air conditioning (as the heat typically did not last long enough to warrant it), but during this five day period, I wished I had had it. High temperatures reached well into the 80s during this period across southern ME, where normal high temperatures are closer to 45 degrees. We also reached 88 degrees in Portland on March 31, 1998, setting the record for the warmest March high temperature ever!