A Dry Mid March Becomes A Wet Saturday

Though scattered rain showers dotted the Jersey Shore Wednesday afternoon and evening, no rain was recorded in the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ. The showers accompanied a cold front on its trek across the state, bringing an end to the warmer temperatures over the past couple of days. Behind the front, a bubble of high pressure will provide the Jersey Shore with dry conditions and cool temperatures to end the week.

A dry frontal passage meant that the rain free streak of days in Toms River, NJ has reached 11 days. Considering how wet March 2024 began, the last 11 days without rain is highly unusual, as the region generally sees rainfall distributed throughout the month. Even with the dry conditions, the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ has received 4.91 inches of rain so far this month, which is approaching an inch above normal.

How unusual is an 11 day rain free streak in the month of March along the Jersey Shore? A quick look at the rainfall database for our location shows that the 11 day streak is the third longest for March (rainfall records for the Bellcrest section of Toms River date back to 1989). During March 2009, there was a 15 day rain free streak (March 4th through March 18th), and March 2021 had a 14 day streak (stretching from March 2nd through March 15th). If the next two days are dry (as expected), our current rain free streak in Toms River could reach 13 days, keeping it in third place.

Low pressure forming on a frontal boundary over the Mid Atlantic states late Friday night and Saturday is expected to bring an end to the rain free streak. As the low tracks along the front, rain should overspread the region during the morning hours, becoming heavy at times during the afternoon and early evening. The track of the storm is similar to those that might produce heavy snowfall over portions of the area, but temperatures are expected to be much too warm for snow, even across the higher terrain. In fact, despite the clouds and rain, temperatures on Saturday should reach into the lower 50s across the Jersey Shore, which is about normal heading into late March (the normal high temperature for the Bellcrest section of Toms River for March 23rd is 51 degrees).

The track of the surface low will also allow deeper moisture to move across the region, setting the stage for locally heavy rainfall, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall amounts of 2.00+ inches are possible during this period, particularly south and east of the New Jersey Turnpike. Note – the daily rainfall record for our location for Saturday, March 23rd 2024 is 1.60 inches (set in 2020), and that record could be threatened. Despite the dry conditions over the past 11 days, local streams and rivers are still running high (a consequence of the heavy rainfall during the beginning of the month). Urban flooding, as well as street flooding is possible along the Jersey Shore, with possibly some small stream and river flooding further west in NJ.

As the low pressure system pulls away Saturday evening, steadier rainfall is expected to end from west to east, and drier conditions are expected into the early portion of next week. Even with the dry conditions dominating the middle of March 2024, the additional rainfall could push our monthly totals into the top 5 wettest Marches at this location. It is unclear how much more rain can be expected for the balance of the month, as a fast flow across the US means that any rainfall would be light in nature. If no additional significant rainfall (beyond Saturday) occurs for the remainder of the month, we will probably not threaten the all-time March rainfall record of 8.19 inches, which was set in 2002.