March 2024 in Toms River, NJ (So Far)….

March 2024 So Far…

The first half of March 2024 has seen much above normal temperatures and much above normal rainfall in the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ. Extraordinary warmth thus far this month has resulted in March 2024 being a full seven degrees above normal! Figure 1 shows the daily average temperature departure from normal for the first 15 days of the month. Note that other than the 1st of the month, each day has had above normal temperatures, with departures approaching 20 degrees above normal.

Despite the warmth, the Bellcrest section of Toms River only eclipsed the 70 degrees mark once this month. The high temperature of 75 degrees on the 15th set a daily high temperature record for the date. So far in March 2024, three daily temperature records have been set, including a record warm overnight low on the third. New record warm overnight lows have been approached on two other occasions, but to this point, only the one record was set.

If the month was to end today, March 2024 would be the second warmest March on record for this location (temperatures records extend back to 1978). March 2012 set the benchmark for warm Marches, and more about that month can be seen here. That warm March was dominated by record wam overnight low temperatures, which was the primary contributor to the record warmth. Much like 2024, March 2012 saw only short interludes of below normal temperatures, surrounded by much warmer than normal conditions throughout the month.

March 2024 started exceedingly wet, with 4.91 inches of rain measured in the first nine days of the month. During that span, three daily rainfall records were set, and it appeared as though March 2024 might take its place among the wettest Marches on record in the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ (where rainfall records date back to 1989). However, Since March 9th, no rain has been recorded at the station, as the rainless streak has reached six days.

As often happens when temperatures average above normal for a week or two during the cooler season (October through April), the pattern turned much drier. During the cooler season, dry air is often unable to hold much moisture (particularly when compared to the summer months), and that has been the case over the past week in Toms River.

For the remainder of March 2024

A cold front crossed the Jersey Shore late on Friday, March 15th, marking a gradual cooldown into next week. Instead of high temperatures well into the 60s, high temperatures for next seven days will be closer to normal (normal high temperatures this time are year are in the lower to mid 50s). Next weekend could feature high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s, a far cry from the extended taste of early spring to which we have been treated, and gusty winds at times could make it feel even colder.

The cooler temperatures will almost certainly result in colder than normal average temperatures during next week and into next weekend. Colder than normal temperatures will chisel away at the near record temperatures so far this month, possibly dropping March 2024 out of the top five warmest Marches on record for this location. This cooldown is reflected in the 6-10 temperature outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, showing near normal temperatures through March 26th.

Meanwhile, rainfall is expected to remain fairly scarce for the next week, with the next chance of meaningful rainfall waiting until next weekend. During that time, rain is anticipated from a winterlike low pressure that takes a track that is eerily similar to one that might produce heavy snow on the Jersey Shore. For those looking forward to spring, fear not; temperatures look much too warm for snow on the Jersey Shore next weekend.