After a Wet and Cool Weekend, Spring Temperatures are Expected Late Next Week

Yet another wet and windy system is expected for the Jersey Shore Saturday into Saturday night, bringing with it the potential for heavy rainfall and wind gusts to 40 mph. Toms River, NJ has seen these types of systems for much of the cool season, starting in December 2023 and lasting through January 2024. After something of a break in the storms during a dry February 2024, they have returned for March, resulting in yet another wet late winter weekend. Portions of NJ (including the Jersey Shore) have seen more than 4.00 inches of rain during the first week of March, meaning conditions are wet ahead of the next system. For that reason, a Flood Watch is in effect for portions of NJ from Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening.

As the low pressure system crosses NJ Saturday night, locally heavy rainfall and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected. Our Tempest Weather Station has not detected a thunderstorm since late September 2023, so any thunderstorms Saturday night would be the first of 2024 there. On the back side of the system Sunday (after we have slip into Eastern Daylight Time), a gusty northwest wind will make temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s feel much cooler. So far this month, temperatures have averaged about 5.5 degrees above normal, so the cooler temperatures will have more of a bite on the gusty winds.

The core of the coldest air crosses NJ Sunday night and Monday, with seasonably cool temperatures for the middle of March. As the high pressure system responsible for the cooler temperatures early next week moves to the mid Atlantic coast, winds shift to the southwest, and temperatures rebound nicely. Along the NJ Shore, normal high temperatures for the middle of March are in the lower 50s, but as the high pressure moves offshore, high temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday of next week could reach the mid 60s to lower 70s, depending on whether the sea breeze brings cooler air in from the still chilly ocean.

A cold front is expected to approach the Northeast next Friday. Ahead of the front, a southwest wind could allow some places close to the NJ shore to approach 70 degrees, which would be about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for March 15th. As warm as we have been so far this year in the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ, we yet to see a high temperature of 70 degrees or higher. If the sea breeze can be kept offshore by the southwest wind, it is possible we might reach that lofty number by the end of next week.

At this point, despite the expected warmth late next week, record high temperatures are not anticipated along the shore. Most of the record high temperatures for the Bellcrest section of Toms River NJ for the middle of March are in the 70s to lower 80s.