The Record Warm March of 2012 in Toms River, NJ

Typically, March is a transition month along the Jersey Shore. As the jet streams retreats north of the area during the month, storminess tends to diminish, as temperatures slowly rise. However, being a transition month, March can take on shades of winter as well as the warmth of spring. The warmest March on record in the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ (where temperature records date back to 1978) had the same average temperature as a typical April, while the coldest March had an average temperature more reminiscent of February. About one-half of Marches see accumulating snowfall, though amounts tend to be light, and last a day or two at most in the face of the rapidly increasing March sun angle.

March 2024 has begun decidedly warm and wet, with temperatures averaging five degrees above normal, along with nearly 4.00 inches of rain. Overall the weather pattern looks to remain warm with occasional rainfall through at least the third week of the month, based on the most recent 8-14 day forecast by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC). While March 2024 has started warm, even at this pace, it would not result in a record warm March for Toms River. March 2012 was the warmest March of record in this location, some three degrees warmer than the next contestant.

The Record Warm March of 2012

On the heels of the third warmest February on record in 2012 (and the second warmest winter on record), March 2012 merely continued the warm pattern established months before. The jet stream did not position itself south of the Jersey Shore for long during the winter, which was the main cause for the much warmer than normal temperatures. While the first week of March 2012 was seasonably warm, it was not until the second week and beyond that the warmth of the month made its presence felt.

A daily record high temperature was established on March 8th, with another daily record high recorded on the 14th. Despite the record warmth for the month overall, these were the only two record high temperatures during March 2012. During this month, the warmth did not manifest itself through record highs, but rather through record high minimum temperatures.

Record high minimum temperatures (often referred to by meteorologists as “mini-maxes”) are the warmest low temperature for any particular date. For example, the low temperature on March 3, 2012 was 45 degrees, meaning that that was the highest temperature value ever recorded as a low temperature for that date. We have seen in recent years that warming has been more profound at night, when the airmass does not have a chance to “reset” before the warmth begins again the next day.

All told, there were nine “mini-maxes” established during March 2012, including five straight days between March 20 and March 24, inclusive. Many of the low temperatures during that stretch were warmer than the normal highs for late March, a testament to the pervasive warmth of the period.

Not only was March 2012 much warmer than normal, it was also exceptionally dry. Just 1.08 inches of rain was recorded during the month, which made is the second driest March on record in the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ (where rainfall records extend back to 1989), eclipsed only by the 0.59 inches of rain that was collected during March 2006. It is not unusual for months with much warmer than normal to have much less rainfall than usual, especially during the cooler months from October through April in NJ.

Epilogue

Despite being the warmest March on record in Toms River, none of the high temperatures during the month threatened the highest ever seen in March. Consistently warm overnight temperatures were the driving factor for the much above normal temperatures, as there were only two daily record high temperatures recorded. In fact, the warmest period during March in the Bellcrest section of Toms River occurred at the end of March 1998.

During the last five days of that month (between March 27 and March 31, inclusive), high temperatures equaled over exceeded 80 degrees. The hottest day of the string was March 27th, when the mercury topped out at 88 degrees! That value also qualifies as the warmest temperature ever in March in Toms River, NJ (since 1978).