Just How Dry has February 2024 Been in Toms River, NJ?

During February 2024, only three days have had recorded precipitation in the Bellcrest section of Toms River, NJ. While the first half of the month featured above normal temperatures, the second half has been decidedly colder, making February 2024 feel more like the winter month that it is. Not surprisingly, cold temperatures typically mean dry conditions, particularly during the winter months. Colder air has less ability to hold moisture than warmer air, and this is most noticeable during the colder months, even near the ocean.

Thus far, only 1.07 inches of liquid precipitation has been measured (which includes an estimated 0.18 inches of precipitation from the two inches of snow that fell on the 17th). If the month ended today, February 2024 would be the third driest February on record at this location (where rainfall records date back to 1989). In fourth place is February 2006 with 1.14 inches, which means any rainfall of 0.10 inches or more before the end of the month could bump February 2024 down the list of driest Februarys.

With just about a week left in February 2024, how much more rain can we expect on the Jersey Shore? The weather pattern is expected to remain progressive, meaning that systems will not linger, and heavy rainfall is not anticipated again this month. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center indicates that the Jersey Shore could see as much as an additional 0.25 inches of rain split between two systems (both systems look too warm for snow in Toms River). This much additional rainfall could kick February 2024 out of the top five driest Februarys.

Regardless of how much rain falls in Toms River by the end of the month, February 2024 will see much below normal rainfall (normal rainfall for February is 2.87 inches). The dry conditions are in sharp contrast to the wet conditions to start meteorological winter (Dec 2023 – Feb 2024), when both December and January received more than 7.00 inches of rainfall. In fact, even with the dry February, the meteorological winter will still be the second wettest winter in the Bellcrest section of Toms River. Though unlikely, additional rainfall this month could still result in this meteorological winter being the wettest on record.